tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1390332969136161956.post3383251904550742891..comments2023-07-02T06:55:31.510-07:00Comments on Animal Spirit Forecasts: 9/16 11:15Steve Koteleshttp://www.blogger.com/profile/07995142353788940838noreply@blogger.comBlogger3125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1390332969136161956.post-74354942875634247852010-09-16T09:24:20.071-07:002010-09-16T09:24:20.071-07:00The world stock markets have had a good run in Sep...The world stock markets have had a good run in September prior to Sunday evening. Mass x momentum = energy. You are correct in that volume has been declining on this rally. I'll post a volume chart for SPX with a trendline. Technical deterioration is evident in many series. The conclusion is that buying power is waning. However, weak technicals can exist longer than capital can hold out. It still requires a game-changing shift in market psychology to translate weak technicals into price decline. The psychology is the real mass because it tends to become ingrained on different time dimensions. The current short-term psychology has been bullish, but is increasingly less confident. Less willing to buy, more willing to wait-and-see. Fund managers act alike, look at similar metrics, discover and mimic each other's portfolios during uncertain times. So, in July they had record low cash, 3.4%. On this rally they increased their stock allocations. They don't have any more ammunition.Steve Koteleshttps://www.blogger.com/profile/07995142353788940838noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1390332969136161956.post-68378225890521000572010-09-16T08:54:25.497-07:002010-09-16T08:54:25.497-07:00Steve
Looks like we may have just broke through t...Steve<br /><br />Looks like we may have just broke through the upward trend to the down side.<br /><br />Jack CAnonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1390332969136161956.post-5648931350190661102010-09-16T08:22:04.831-07:002010-09-16T08:22:04.831-07:00Can you comment on how such a rally can be done on...Can you comment on how such a rally can be done on so low a volume? Titanic was voluminous. Not so this market. <br /><br />Do the bears just sit out a rally and cover? It seems volume only picks up at turning points.Peterhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/04258874916072355737noreply@blogger.com