3/12 Daily Commentary

Exited short stock positions in ARCA and early trade, decent fills but took a minor hit on small positions.  This does not change the forecast for an initial low 3/19 and much lower low 3/29.  I will be short 40-50% of capital going into 3/19 but will reduce to 20% near the close of 3/19.  If the market does not tank into the 19th I will reduce to 10%.
My short flash point is SPX 15-minute 54-unit M/A - .56%, which calcs out to 1140.35.  This is 10 points away from market.  If the weekend turns out very bearish this is about what I can expect (a blow-out would leave me at the station with my baggage).  XMI breaking out is indicating that big money is betting upward short-term.  The XMI held back against the speculative juices since late Friday afternoon last week.  For it to break out now might indicate a bull trap but wave count indicates one more high to 1179. I pay close attention to XMI and DJI because they are usually not susceptible to bull or bear traps.
Obviously I hope to short at a better price on Monday and I will sell as quickly as possible on a new high with the proper wave count but if it trades down over the weekend I am content to sell into weakness and I hope short at the 1140.35 level (or equivalent in futures market).  I do not expect either index to approach the January highs.
I am not bullish the stock market.  I want to short this market, but the short-term trend in big money is up and I don't argue with the generals. 
There is still a bit of room on the Nasdaq composite trendline (to about 2385):

My ideal scenario is for Nasdaq to run to 2380 (.75%) and DJI to 10690(.7%) intraday and close well off the highs.

The Technical composite series will hit a short-term (1 month or so) sell signal at -20.  It is currently -18.  One more day of bullish data should tip the scale.