5/11 Daily Commentary

I am up on the 5% SDS short stock position, but down a little on the 2.5% ZSL short silver. 
I1 is my primary strategic tool.  My secondary is DJI 5-minute, 380-unit M/A.  Apart from entering into positions on I1 turn dates I always align myself with this M/A.  Today the market tested it's range and slightly exceeded it.  1.2% is normally a good range to apply to this M/A.  I traditionally give it an extra 10 points to be safe.  Today, with the increased volatility stemming from last Thursday's rout, it required  1.4%.  The DJI rallied up to the 1.2% level (10,725 + 1.2% = 10854) then gapped higher.  This was an exhaustion gap as it turned out so as soon as DJI crossed back under (confirming it was not a continuation gap) I replaced the position and placed the stop beyond the high.   This market is tougher to trade.
So, beyond my strategic tools lie the tactical.   This is straightforward.  The S&P futures 30-minute, 90-unit M/A +.5% on a 30-minute close and the cash SPX 15-minute, 54-unit M/A +.5% track each other.  The market closed pretty much on both of them.  Futures first:

Next, the cash:

So here is how the metrics line up:
I1 slowly advancing for the next 3 days.  No short-term money in stock positions
I1 on a longer-term sell signal (all this means is that there will be no new highs in the major averages)
DJI 5-minute M/A above the market, still on a sell
SPX 15-minute and futures 30-minute are still on a buy but price is testing them. We will know tonight if the 30-minute will turn the trend back up.
So, with 5% of the capital I am not risking the farm.

Silver:
Silver has been catching up to gold, having cratered with stocks, but when the push = the shove silver will fall with the stock market yet again.  A day or 2 early on silver, but went in because they were both testing last December's highs.  Gold closed above it, but silver did not reach it's old high. 

  Here is a close-up of the C wave:

So, selling right near the old highs.  Here is a sensitive forward sentiment for silver (minus today's bar):

If silver trades to new highs overnight and stays that way into 9:30 AM I will liquidate the short silver position.  With 2.5% capital I am not risking the farm.  However, ZSL was down 9.2% today so it's volatility is legendary.  However, silver has had 2 blowout days over the past week.  It is doubtful it will have a third, 2 seems to be it's limit.