5/12 10:40

Spot silver touched 19.70 and fell back.  Still in the short.  Silver is responding to the stock market rally.
There is a nice editorial by Stephen Mauzy in 5/3 Barrons that talks about stock valuation rationalization and hidden assumptions.  In the 40's stock valuation became based on the cash-flow approach from the 1938 The Theory of Investment Value by John Williams.  Onto this framework Markowitz's 1952 modern portfolio theory was married.  MPT says to use historical data to find investments that have weak correlation and combine them in order to diversify and minimize risk.  This is a free lunch, low-risk and good returns. The ideology of the past 60 years was to find a good set of companies and hold forever. The hidden assumption was that the economy would expand and keep the academicians' historical data relevant.  After WWII the U.S. was the only game.  After Kennedy the government was the wellspring of money creation.  With the advent of endless money creation investing added another layer, the growth ideology, in the '60s. 
It evolved in the 90's into the .com craze.  The bear markets in the '70s and 2000's exposed these frameworks as nothing but rationalizations to buy the next economic boom and, when the boom turned to bust, to discover that intrinsic value was far, far below the computed numbers.  Ideological investing is fraught with hidden risk. 
I continually question my motives in seeking trading ideas in order to avoid ideology.  I would subscribe to various investment pubs and take a small portion of capital to try their ideas.  Except for determining that a bull market was in force by applying brute moving averages and then buying stocks all of the approaches had big drawdowns before their ideas took traction, if ever they did.
Right now I use the I1. It has become an ideology because I have profited time and time again from it's application.  I have extended it to include a longer-term framework, not only with the .5 magnitude rule, but with bull/bear market prediction based on extended I1 levels.  For me these extensions are currently statistically viable but have not been proven with real market experience.  I am struggling with adopting longer-term positions, but will continue to hold a small portion of my capital in the I1 longer-term trades.
The SPX 15-minute, 54-unit M/A is at 1159, giving an 1153 support break level.