Wednesday, May 5, 2010

5/5 pre-open

Currently 20% double-short stocks and 20% long bonds.
Yesterday I stated that the wave (iv) would probably be a rectangle or flat (implying limited upside bounce-back).  It was a rectangle and stock prices have broken down overnight. 

The expanded count is (v) of 3 in progress:
I should be reducing exposure to 10% short stocks and 10% bonds when this downwave ends, in anticipation of slightly higher prices.  Wave 3 is concluding and wave 4 will probably be a rectangle or flat.  Thus, upside will be limited but should be enough to trade.  Question is: where does the current wave end?
My first guess is SPX 1152. This is wave 5 bottom guess.

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