Last night's Daily Commentary was preempted by programming tasks associated with the weekly composite.
Today's key chart is the SPX 15-minute, 54-unit M/A:
The bear market declines in 5-waves not in 3-waves. So.....if I1 is valid and the low is next week then the 3-wave decline in the chart above will turn into new lows. If the momentum of this strong rally over the past year is still in force then the market will rally beyond SPX 1182.
The June futures were stopped cold at the 30-minute, 92-unit M/A which corresponds to the chart above for cash session SPX. If the cash session brings prices back to the extreme of the overnight futures then a rally to SPX 1172 will occur. This is convenient because it would produce a triangle in the cash SPX chart, which is a typical wave 4 phenomenon.
Another convenience is that there are 3 trading sessions to the I1 low. That is about the right amount of time for wave 4 to continue chewing up the close and a wave 5 breakdown to complete. Monday afternoon.
Today is the day before the JOBS report. This is not quite the halloween it has been because the world is going to hell. We all know that government census will distort it. I remember that there is a legion of traders out there who need income from trades, trades, trades. They like nothing more than to sieze a nuance and strangle a trend out of it. Normally the day before the jobs report the market trends in order to discount it.
Jobless claims typically sets this trend. Today they expect 440,000 a decrease from 448,000 last week. Productivity for 1st quarter is expected at 3.1%.
I will be looking for an uptrend to take the SPX gradually up +6. If it happens all at once I will not increase short..
Stop is at SPX 1178 and SPX 1182.
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