Friday, May 7, 2010

5/7 9:30

Gold is down $12 this morning, signalling an easing of the crisis mentality.  However, 3-month Libor rose to .428%, a .05 uptick signalling the crisis continues.The jobs report came in at 290k, 224k minus census workers.  Revisions upward as well.  Rate came in at 9.9% and U6 up as well to 17.1%.  Long-term unemployed at record 45.9%.  So, stim creating cheap jobs but not building good jobs.  Still, manufacturing added 44k.  Not a bad report.  If the market were looking backward it would rally on this one.  Instead it declined.  Verdict?  The world will hand us a knuckle sandwich in the future reports.  I am now at 15% SDS average price 32.72.

The daily technical composite came back to neutral yesterday (back to 0), cancelling it's sell signal.  However, in a bear market we can expect a swing to +28 before the first decent rally:

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