Friday, May 7, 2010

5/7 pre-open

Now Nasdaq is saying that there were no erroneous orders.  When NYSE shut P&G and the orders flowed to Nasdaq there were no bids on one of the largest companies in the world.  This makes me believe that a real crash is in the cards, maybe not now, but soon.
Yesterday's support becomes resistance as Nasdaq Comp 66-day M/A at 2350 and SPX 73-day M/A at
SPX 220-day crossed yesterday at 1080. This is a 10-year chart:

So, market fell all the way to the 220-day before finding bottom.   This was also round-number support on the DJI at 10,000, as well as the February bottom. 
The I1 bottoms Monday at 3.62 but Tuesday is 3.65 so if the wave count is incomplete on Monday then I would prefer to hold into mid-day Tuesday until count complete. From there it stages a minor uptick to 4.54 on 5/24.  This is less than .50 I1 points so rule states it is OK to hold longer-term positions through it AND the move beyond it to the 6/8 low counts as a sell signal dating back to 4/29. See the Intro and Concepts page.
There is another series that I follow that lies outside the I1 which has a good track record.  This bottoms 5/19, so given that I1 allows me to hold short through the minor uptick and compels longer-term traders to hold short into the 6/8 bottom I will hold 50% short into at least 5/19.  I allow for a 3-session uptick from 5/20 through 5/24 because a couple of components of I1 show minor strength for these 3 session, but this is not a requirement.
A .618 retracement of the decline from 2/26 would give max upside of 10,720.  Jobs report 180,000 and 9.7% consensus.  I am putting in an order for 5% SDS at 32.33.

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