6/17 Daily Commentary

Wave (iv) is complete.  The abcde points are plainly visible. The noon post identified the low point of wave iv (the nominal low) but the orthodox low is 30,344 at 3:17.  5 waves will proceed from here and this low will not be violated until wave (v) is complete. 

Now, I don't want to give the impression that counting waves is easy.  It's not.  But it is a lot easier knowing when the peak will occur than operating in the dark.  Must I wait through Monday to declare wave (v) of C of 2 complete?  No, but I will give the structure far more leeway to extend until noon Monday rolls around.  Right now we are in wave (v) with 2 days left.  However, 5th waves tend to be short in time and price. Also, I am looking at serious resistance between 10,460 and 10,615.  So, with 2 days to go I have to figure there is no more than 180 points left in the rally.  10,516 sticks out due to a weekly M/A and it is the 50% retracement point for the decline from 4/26.  If the market hits this on a 5-wave then I will go in with a small position ahead of Monday afternoon.