7/12 Daily Commentary

I1 is still floating prices.  This is a dynamic rally that does not want to correct, but is at it's 61.8% retracement level and will retrace before more advance occurs.  Elliott Wave International is bearish and our counts agree, to a point.  They count the same completed 5-wave I do, but they consider that this completes the ABC correction from the 6/25 low.  Due to the I1 rising, I consider this as wave 1 of 5 completed.  The 61.8% retracement makes this a logic place to stop;  the question is whether it will return to the bear trend immediately (as EWI believes) or will recover it's legs after a 200-point fall (as I believe).
I just got the sentiment figures from last week and the AAII bullish% is now 20.9%, the lowest since March, 2009 with only 4 lower weekly values in 7 years.  This reinforces the I1 leadership and continued rally.  This also leads me to my alternative view, that the market will not stage 3 upward waves to complete this ABC but will continue to extend so that this single wave that has been in progress since the B wave last Thursday becomes a 9 wave sequence.  The difference is that there are no sizable corrections in the 5th through 9th waves.  I hold this as an alternative in case the market does not correct here.  The time cycle indicates a low Wednesday and the market is at Fibonacci resistance, but this is independent of the I1 which continues to rally.

I'll be in software developer mode for another several days.  I have the technical indicators and moving averages that I track peeled off to an Excel spreadsheet and automatically updated by the minute, but getting the Microsoft Script CHANGED event to trigger and code to deliver the event with the correct parameters and then to trigger an order for execution to the floor are the current bug-a-bears.  The platform is TT-Trader.  Any trades delivered this way are independent of my main trading activity, which will continue to be manually delivered ETF transactions.