Tuesday, August 10, 2010

8/10 Daily Commentary

Market sold off on slow China syndrome.  Perked up on FOMC buying treasuries with proceeds from their mortgage-backed.
Not a bad day, up a few bucks.  Came in 2% SSO from 38.17 and 1% DJ futures from 10,609.  Bought 2% SSO at 37.80 and sold that at 37.76.  Bought 1% DJ futures at 10,516.  Sold 2% futures at 10,555.  Bought 2% DJ futures on stop 10,573 which was hit after FOMC.  Currently long 2% DJ futures and 2% SSO.
We are in the 5th Sub-Micro of the 3rd Micro wave of Sub-minuette c of the final abc of the diagonal triangle and it should seek new highs before done.
Here is my current count:

And again at today's Micro level:
There is still plenty to go wrong with this count, but the way it plays out that Micro5 completes the diagonal at or above the trendline on Friday.

4 comments:

  1. Steve,

    Are you holding a short position at this time? or are you waiting until Friday to enter short?

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  2. Hi Steve,

    I believe your count works as long as you are treating the entire move up from the July 1 low as wave C. So the bigger picture for that count is that that wave C is the last wave of an expanded flat.

    An alternate count has the July 1 low as the end of primary wave 1 (which played out as a Leading Diagonal). This count has the move up from that July 1 low as an ABC zigzag where the C of the zigzag began at the July 20 low.

    Here is a screen shot of this alternate count:

    http://screencast.com/t/ODQ2NjVjOD

    The only problem with this count is that it doesn't line up with your I1 timing because this count has us in wave 3 of C and it's not likely to complete that wave AND waves 4 AND 5 by Friday.

    ReplyDelete
  3. pima
    Thanks for getting back. I1 has a knack of narrowing things down. I keep expecting a burst of optimism to barrel the market through 10,700. Once it occurs it's good for over 100 DJI points. Throwover probability is being reduced as it toils below there.

    ReplyDelete