Wednesday, August 11, 2010

8/11 1:35

Currently Sub-Minuette3 (S3) is still in progress and in Micro wave4. Once complete there should be a Micro wave5 to finish S3.  I had originally intended to stay flat until Friday I1 peak but if we get a good rally after S3 bottoms I'll short early.  So far there is only a 3-wave down but the extent of the 3rd wave is such that it indicates structural weakness.  DJI has not touched it's 220-day M/A yet.  This is not a precise level so I would not be surprised to se 10,483 exceeded on the downside.  The 220-day should however raise Lazarus from the dead.  S1 bottom is 10,552 so that is the upper limit on S4.  Unfortunately alternation implies that S4 will be a rectangle so the upside will be much less.

There is the possibility that S3 is complete and that the above count is wrong.  If the DJ futures 10-minute M/A is exceeded by 10 points then I'll know S3 is complete and S4 is in progress.

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