Thursday, August 12, 2010

8/12 Daily Commentary

Cash stock indices are in Sub-Minuette4 rectangles.   I expected rectangle or expanded flat for S4 because S2 was zig-zag.  So, minimum retracement of the long S3, only 20%.



Futures stock indices are in what I thought initially were expanded flat Sub-Minuette4.  Later they resolved as rectangles.

I shorted last night 10,326, covered at 10,305.  Shorted again 10,286, then stopped out and re-entered same price.  Stop is now 10,333.  Target is 10,201.  So, I think quick dump to minor new lows.  Cash equivalent 10,240 (assuming that S5 is not completed before the cash market opens). 
A major moving average will be intersecting this afternoon's highs in about 7 hours.  So, if the market decides to keep rectangling this is the maximum time I give it before it dumps.

Tomorrow is I1 peak day.  I would expect S5 to complete tonight and the first Minuette of the bear to begin then and end tomorrow afternoon.  I'll be buying for the bounce tonight if the low comes in.
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6 comments:

  1. Am I misunderstanding something? You're expecting S5 to bottom overnight, and then a pop up Friday. Isn't this the big short signal time?

    -shabs

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  2. shabs
    These 5 waves down are only from Monday's high, so the retracement rally I expect should be done tomorrow afternoon, in line with the I1. This is what I expect, anyway....

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  3. Ok, thought I had it right :) Looks like it's going to be a ride... -s

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  4. So long till tomorrow afternoon then short like crazy

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  5. I'm short looking for a bottom tonight. Then a couple of hundred DJI points up into the close tomorrow.

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