Monday, October 11, 2010

10/11 2:10

I believe sentiment is such that the prevailing expectation is that it would take a miracle to experience a sell-off here.  Momentum is up on all trading degrees.   The Fed is inflating with no end in sight and is forcing other central banks into buying treasuries to protect themselves.  The goal of Treasury and the Fed is to force job creation, even if it means undertaking potentially distastrous means.  The long-term effects of such wild QE are incalculable and affect all future elements of our economy and society.  Nonetheless, it has happened and is continuing.  Gold and silver have taken wing.  I'll be posting a silver study in the Daily today.
What, in any rational, conditioned mind, is to stop the inevitable expansion of all asset prices?  Notice I added "conditioned", meaning to all conventional logic.  Even I have laid out a worst-case scenario of 1174 SPX.  In fact, SP futures breaking 1165.75 on the upside will reduce my SDS position back to 5%.  All eyes are on the foregone conclusion that an upside breakout is imminent.  The Euro came to within a hairbreadth of breaking a M/A that held it for a month. 
The bears have the following in their favor:
1)  I1 is down on a formal sell signal.  To turn down here would be a triumph for I1 against all odds.
2)  SPX weekly resistance is being tested since last week
Here is SPX weekly resistance:

Here is the same over a decade:

SPX 1174 would still not be a breakout from this M/A.

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