Wednesday, October 13, 2010

10/13 Daily

I had thought that I would return home today.  Unfortunately, my wife requires a procedure and we were lucky to preempt an available appointment tomorrow.  Overnight without my tools.
Enough said, I am short SP futures, short CL futures, and was stopped out of DX futures at 76.09.  I hold 12% SDS and 5% UUP.  Will hold positions through tomorrow at which point either prices will decline below wave (iv) resistance line(s) or I will liquidate the SP futures short.

The SPX touched it's 78.6% retracement of the April decline at it's high today.  NDX closed at it's April high close.  This is the time to be bold.

The key turn confirmation for all markets will be the dollar index closing a 90-minute close .45 points above it's M/A:
Currently this is 77.96.
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7 comments:

  1. AnonymousOctober 13, 2010 at 5:58 PM

    Don't throw in the towel!...your the last bear standing, besides me :/

    ReplyDelete
  2. pimaCanyonOctober 13, 2010 at 8:52 PM

    Thanks, Steve, for posting even though you're away from your office.

    I've looked at the wave structure of the SPX cash and I would give at least an even chance that the move down during the latter part of the trading day is a small 4th wave. That is, today's high could have been 3 of C of 5 of an Ending Diagonal. If so, then we will have one more small push up to a slightly higher high tomorrow.

    If what we had was an Ending Diagonal (ED) over the last several days, then we should see a fast move down if the ED completed today, or a fast move down after the market makes a marginal new high tomorrow.

    Good trading to you!

    ReplyDelete
  3. AnonymousOctober 13, 2010 at 9:17 PM

    Have a quick (short!) recovery. Best wishes.

    ReplyDelete
  4. PeterOctober 13, 2010 at 11:13 PM

    Steve can I ask why you dont trade the VIX or its versions.

    between the 12th April and 21th May the SPY lost 15 points so a 12.5% decline

    over the same dates the VIX went up from 15.23 to 48.20 so a 216% advance.

    For the same move it seems the VIX pays better but have I got something wrong in this?

    ReplyDelete
  5. Tom UKOctober 14, 2010 at 2:22 AM

    Best of luck Steve. Horrible overnight move for the dollar - a blowoff bottom or another sprint after recent consolidation? My account not enjoying this spectacular weakness.

    ReplyDelete
  6. Gary MorganOctober 14, 2010 at 3:03 AM

    Hi Steve. Hope your wife's procedure goes smoothly.
    Any concerns at yet further big declines in the dollar today?
    Will the dollar 'crash' maybe?
    As ever I find myself questioning 'when will it all end'?
    Wish I could be bold like you!
    Good luck.

    ReplyDelete
  7. Steve KotelesOctober 14, 2010 at 5:41 AM

    I'll look into trading VIX. There are so many ways of trading the same impulse!
    As far as dollar concerned I have a bell-ringer when DX breaks it's 90-min M/A by .45 on a 90-min close. AND it is nearby. Bottoms often contain fake-out spike moves. I think this is one of them.

    ReplyDelete

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