Silver has the look of a descending triangle as it's topping form. I like ascending/descending triangles. To me, they are reliable.
.bmp)
Of course, they are only reliable after they finish forming. This one probably has some chopping around to do. I'm currently short 1% SI futures and hold 2% ZSL short silver ETF.
If silver is tracing out a triangle, then when it's complete, wouldn't we expect it to break out to the upside, in the direction of the trend it was in prior to forming the triangle? I say this because in EW triangles always form as the second to last wave in a sequence, so either a 4th wave of an impulse or a B wave of a corrective pattern.
ReplyDeleteI look at ascending and descending triangles as exceptions to the EW doctrine. Descending triangles only rarely break out to the upside, so whenever they form they imply their own direction. Silver's wave count is complete on the upside and I'm the only one left on the short side. I look around me and all I see are dead shorts.
ReplyDeleteWe'll know after the abcde is complete.
ReplyDeleteI am new to EW, and those ABCDE triangles have not made sense to me thus far.
ReplyDeleteRegarding silver, aren't you the least bit worried about a black swan, like, for example, a derivatives crisis? Such an event could be the one thing that drives up metals. I imagine that in a lot of the world, PMs are really the only mobile preservation of at least some wealth. Diamonds only preserve wealth in fictional novels.
In 2008 the derivatives crisis arrived and silver lost 50% of it's value as money flowed into dollars. Silver has already priced in that inflation will accelerate. So far, it has not, so is silver realistically priced? Uncle Ben has made helicopter intentions plain as day for a long time. Is that not priced in as well? Can the Fed force inflation by buying treasuries? No. The emperor has no clothes on but we do not see it (yet). The flow into and out of the dollar determines the price of PM priced in dollars. When the flow turns toward the dollar PM will decline.
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