Monday, October 18, 2010

10/18 1:30

POMO. The Fed is buying treasuries in an effort to drive down the dollar.  Their buying is infinitesimal in such a vast marketplace.  Meanwhile our trading partners are wising up and not allowing the Fed the psychological effect of their statements on the markets.  These countries' actions are forming a base in the dollar.  China, Japan, Korea, Singapore, Brazil, BOE, and now the ECB have made public their resistance to further dollar decline by counteracting the Fed's move. How many others are taking action covertly?
If the Fed persists the waters will be poisoned for further cooperation on any future bilateral efforts with governments affected by this blatant tactic.  Yet the market anticipates a big action coming up.  Is this realistic?  If Ben alienates the world's central bankers he will be slitting his own political throat.  Look to Ben not seeking another term and a lot of fence-building being needed next year.
Meanwhile, back in the trenches,  the market is propped up by this illusion of power.  I bought 2% QID at a good price and, with the 12% SDS already held and the SP futures short,  this brought me up to the allocation justified by market conditions.  The SP futures 30-minute M/A is at 1172.05 and is currently on a sell signal.  This will be revoked by any 30-minute close above 1178.

7 comments:

  1. I believe POMO days are a double whammy. Yes, the dollar gets driven down by the creation of money out of thin air, but also the money that the Fed spends to buy treasuries gets put into stocks and commodities, driving their prices up.

    I need to do some research to verify this, but I believe that we have not yet had a POMO day where the stock market closed negative.

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  2. I just posted a video of a Fed FOMC member warning markets to 'stop being manic'.

    Worth a look Steve. It will end in tears very soon, but maybe not til Nov 3rd.

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  3. Can you explain again how you get the 1178 30 min close sell signal? Is it off your 91 SMA plus a certain percent?

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  4. "It's US against them."

    http://99ercharts.blogspot.com/2010/10/dx.html

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  5. If you go to the Fed site and search POMO they will list the POMO days and settlement days. Settlement does not occur the same day! What we have is an ingrained behavior that is self-reinforcing until it blows up. How many retail traders have just bought stocks due to the 2:00 POMO effect?

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  6. I take the 30-minute, 91-unit M/A, compute .5% and round up to the nearest quarter point.

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  7. Here's the link to the NY Fed POMO site:
    http://www.newyorkfed.org/markets/pomo/display/index.cfm

    Note the settlement day.

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