I1 goes negative tomorrow. I want to be short stock futures but am waiting to see if overlap occurs on the upside tonight. Retracement moves due in copper and dollar index. If so, spill over into stock futures.
Silver confirmation came in with SLV declining below 22.95. Nov. Copper futures also confirmed by breaking 80.30 (Dec. 81.00).
Dollar index confirmed yesterday. Wave (iii) possibly completed today.
I count crude as a completed 5 down forming Minute 1. I'm looking for a rally to 82.00 to get short.
I count silver as still within (iii) of Minute 1 down. Once Minute 1 completes I expect a rally to 23.90.
Futures markets treated me well. Silver futures remaining short with no trades. Dollar futures started long 2%, sold 1% at 78.48. DJ futures started 1% short and took 235 points out of the market. Now flat.
Still holding 12% SDS and 2% QID, 2% ZSL, 2% SCO,5%UUP.
Still short 1% Silver futures and long 1% DX futures.
On your count for DJ, why can't it be a 1-2 1-2 count?
ReplyDeleteIf SPX overlaps tomorrow or SP futures overlap tonight then 1-2 1-2 is what it will have to be.
ReplyDeleteExcellent job, Steve, and great post!
ReplyDeleteSPX cash does look like wave 4 is in progress. DJX has overlap (small at this point) of waves 1 and 4 which is small enough to be allowable.
Another way you could count both indexes is that 5 down completed at today's lows. You'd do this by counting a small wave 1 that completed yesterday afternoon. Wave 3 would be the gap and move down at the open, and wave 5 the move down this afternoon to the day's lows. (I don't subscribe to EWI services anymore, but I would guess that that is their count.)
I've looked at the charts again, and unfortunately it looks like 3 down to me now too.
ReplyDeleteSo we either get a 5th wave early tomorrow, or perhaps it's a 1-2, 1-2 as Billy suggested. If we significantly retrace above the end of wave 1, then the 5th wave scenario is out. And if we retrace more than 78 percent of what you're calling the 3rd wave, then the 1-2 1-2 scenario is out. What would that leave us with? Possibly a Leading Diagonal or the conclusion that the 3 waves down are corrective and we would therefore expect another impulsive move up, probably to a new high.
Steve,
ReplyDeleteWhat do you think of this wave count? Do you agree with the wave 4 warning?
Thanks,
Charles
http://2.bp.blogspot.com/_pEqUnV3_k_I/TL5PTe3R99I/AAAAAAAAAHM/ZH2dU5-mKtE/s1600/02_KRTT_BLOG_Oct19_2010_SP500_2hour.gif
Charles
ReplyDeleteDo you think we are in a major bull market?
pima
ReplyDeleteI've revised my count. Simplest is 5 down complete, leaving us with either (i) or c complete.