This EW site seems to think that the DJIA has to make somewhere between 11238 and 11254, before it can start its large move down. Be interested in your thoughts? Thanks.
Eastern We got a hair's breadth away from the all-out sell yesterday. Traders today are doing their POMO dance. It's what they believe, so now the mantra is that POMO is always up, so they buy. Beige book at 2:00. This will be more important than POMO expectations.
You're right, Steve. Stocks on the rampage. Dollar is down but not near as much as stock are up. Dollar retraced not quite 62 percent of move up from Friday's low so far. Crude, same deal, almost exact percentage retracement as dollar. Silver, however, has retraced only 38 percent of its recent move down.
This is a possible count, saying that 100% of the decline from April will be retraced. If so then I expect the wave 5 to begin after the 26th. Taking out 11,178 would be a resumption of wave 5 according to this count.
I have set up "studies" in TOS for each of your MA groups that you use for different time frames and different indexes and commodities.
Have you found that over time (say months or years) you will have to adjust the MA periods that you're using in order for them to continue to be reliable as market conditions change over time?
I've used the 5-minute, 370-unit EMA for 3 years now. I changed it from 380-unit only to synchronize it with my trading platform which uses a different set of inputs for EMAs. I don't anticipate it to change, but if it starts giving false signals then I'll have to. Yesterday validated the current envelope -1.35% so I know that it is correct at this time. The others may change a bit over time.
Jack C There is an upside open gap on the NASDAQ from 10/18. In my estimation, it is highly probable that this gap gets filled before any significant decline commences.
Regarding Crude: It just hit the 62 percent retrace and has started dropping. The count up from yesterday's low looks like a zigzag ABC where the A occurred overnight, the B occurred early this morning before the open and the C was today's impulsive move up in 5 waves as C waves always are.
The C wave may not be complete--looks like it may still be in the 3rd wave of the 5th which means we might go all the way to 78 percent retrace.
('course, the possible fly in the ointment is that you could also count the move up from the low as the first 3 waves up of an incompleted 5 up!)
Steve what do you think maybe occurring that the I1 is not factoring in?
ReplyDeleteIt seems bad news drives the market up or just liquidity injections?
http://elliottwavestockmarket.com/
ReplyDeleteHi Steve.
This EW site seems to think that the DJIA has to make somewhere between 11238 and 11254, before it can start its large move down.
Be interested in your thoughts?
Thanks.
Eastern
ReplyDeleteWe got a hair's breadth away from the all-out sell yesterday. Traders today are doing their POMO dance. It's what they believe, so now the mantra is that POMO is always up, so they buy.
Beige book at 2:00. This will be more important than POMO expectations.
You're right, Steve. Stocks on the rampage. Dollar is down but not near as much as stock are up. Dollar retraced not quite 62 percent of move up from Friday's low so far. Crude, same deal, almost exact percentage retracement as dollar. Silver, however, has retraced only 38 percent of its recent move down.
ReplyDeleteThis is a possible count, saying that 100% of the decline from April will be retraced. If so then I expect the wave 5 to begin after the 26th. Taking out 11,178 would be a resumption of wave 5 according to this count.
ReplyDeleteSteve, a question re your MA's.
ReplyDeleteI have set up "studies" in TOS for each of your MA groups that you use for different time frames and different indexes and commodities.
Have you found that over time (say months or years) you will have to adjust the MA periods that you're using in order for them to continue to be reliable as market conditions change over time?
I've used the 5-minute, 370-unit EMA for 3 years now. I changed it from 380-unit only to synchronize it with my trading platform which uses a different set of inputs for EMAs. I don't anticipate it to change, but if it starts giving false signals then I'll have to. Yesterday validated the current envelope -1.35% so I know that it is correct at this time. The others may change a bit over time.
ReplyDeleteJack C
ReplyDeleteThere is an upside open gap on the NASDAQ from 10/18. In my estimation, it is highly probable that this gap gets filled before any significant decline commences.
Thanks, Steve.
ReplyDeleteRegarding Crude: It just hit the 62 percent retrace and has started dropping. The count up from yesterday's low looks like a zigzag ABC where the A occurred overnight, the B occurred early this morning before the open and the C was today's impulsive move up in 5 waves as C waves always are.
The C wave may not be complete--looks like it may still be in the 3rd wave of the 5th which means we might go all the way to 78 percent retrace.
('course, the possible fly in the ointment is that you could also count the move up from the low as the first 3 waves up of an incompleted 5 up!)