DX has had 3 waves up since Friday's low. The move down just a few minutes ago overlaps the end of wave 1, so another wave up to complete 5 up is very unlikely at this point.
The count now has two possibilities: 1) ABC up to the high yesterday afternoon, or 2) A series of one's and two's
If yesterday's high marked the top of an ABC, then it's likely DX will make a new low. If that's the count, A = C almost exactly which tends to make this count more probable IMO than a series of one's and two's.
If DX drops below 77.44 odds decrease significantly for the one's and two's alternate (because 77.44 is the 78 percent retrace of the second "one")
When you get an extended third wave in EW, do you know what the typical relationship is between wave 1 and wave 1 of 3 in terms of price? If we do have wave 1 and then wave 1 of 3 on DX since Friday's low, in this case wave 1 = wave 1 of 3. I would think that wave 1 of 3 would be smaller than wave 1, but have not done any research on this.
Here's a second possible bullish count on DX: A Leading Diagonal (LD). Way too early to tell yet, though, because if an LD is forming, the end of wave 1 of the LD completed at yesterday's high.
There's also another bearish count for DX: Yesterday's high might be the top of only the A wave of an ABC correction. This would be short term bullish because after the B wave in progress, the C wave would take DX to a high above yesterday's high. But then DX would head for a new low
So we have two possible bullish counts for DX: 1) Series of one's and two's, or 2) A Leading Diagonal
And we have two bearish counts for DX:
1) An ABC correction completed at yesterday's high and DX is now moving lower to what will likely be a new low. 2) Wave A completed at yesterday's high, DX is now in a B wave. C wave up will follow after which DX will head lower
DX has had 3 waves up since Friday's low. The move down just a few minutes ago overlaps the end of wave 1, so another wave up to complete 5 up is very unlikely at this point.
ReplyDeleteThe count now has two possibilities:
1) ABC up to the high yesterday afternoon, or
2) A series of one's and two's
If yesterday's high marked the top of an ABC, then it's likely DX will make a new low. If that's the count, A = C almost exactly which tends to make this count more probable IMO than a series of one's and two's.
If DX drops below 77.44 odds decrease significantly for the one's and two's alternate (because 77.44 is the 78 percent retrace of the second "one")
When you get an extended third wave in EW, do you know what the typical relationship is between wave 1 and wave 1 of 3 in terms of price? If we do have wave 1 and then wave 1 of 3 on DX since Friday's low, in this case wave 1 = wave 1 of 3. I would think that wave 1 of 3 would be smaller than wave 1, but have not done any research on this.
77.45 is support so I'm holding my 1% DX until 77.38.
ReplyDeleteHere's a second possible bullish count on DX: A Leading Diagonal (LD). Way too early to tell yet, though, because if an LD is forming, the end of wave 1 of the LD completed at yesterday's high.
ReplyDeleteThere's also another bearish count for DX: Yesterday's high might be the top of only the A wave of an ABC correction. This would be short term bullish because after the B wave in progress, the C wave would take DX to a high above yesterday's high. But then DX would head for a new low
So we have two possible bullish counts for DX:
1) Series of one's and two's, or
2) A Leading Diagonal
And we have two bearish counts for DX:
1) An ABC correction completed at yesterday's high and DX is now moving lower to what will likely be a new low.
2) Wave A completed at yesterday's high, DX is now in a B wave. C wave up will follow after which DX will head lower