After 2 weeks of inactivity the markets have reached junctures. I1 tops Monday afternoon. I expect commodities to peak ahead of stocks. I now hold 2% UUP from 22.95, long Dec DX futures from 79.65, and short March gold futures from 1408. The Euro is my stop on the dollar position, with a wave 1 low in futures of 133.44 and cash of 133.4480. Euro futures hit their high today at 133.437. Anything above 133.50 will cause me to exit dollar long.
I just shorted Euro by buying 2% EUO at 20.19.
I expected gold to rally to around 1420, but was not entirely certain so I shorted at 1408. The short-term count is that wave 3 is complete and wave 4 in progress. This gives me the opportunity to cover Sunday evening at 1415 and await final top. I shorted silver and exited with a slight profit when it became probable that another high was due. I shorted crude via SCO ETF expecting the old high of 89 to hold. When it did not I exited with a trivial loss.
My biggest hole is the dollar futures position, but with Euro so close to it's wave 1 and the count looking complete I am comfortable holding. Sunday evening will tell the tale.
Stock index futures already double-tapped the November highs last night. Monday should see the cash indices tapping them as I1 peaks. I'll go short in the afternoon on a challenge of DJI 11450. If the rally pierces this level in the morning I'll stand aside. If I short stocks I'll also short crude or buy the double-short ETF.
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When you say you expect a bottom well above last weeks lows, is that for I1, the stock market or both?
ReplyDeleteIt seems that your forecast is very similar to a wave 4 down and wave 5 up into March / April, like the EWI forecast. I know you came at it independently though.
ReplyDeleteIs that a correct interpretation? Higher low than early November in risk assets, then a rally into the spring making new highs?
Copper
ReplyDeleteRisk off?
http://99ercharts.blogspot.com/2010/12/copper_04.html
Have a great weekend.