5/16 9:45

I sold 4% QID and 3% TWM earlier this morning.  I think there is one more rally back to at least the middle of the trading range.  Also, the raw I1 lead of 7-8 days could still remain, in which case the market will rally for another 7 sessions. 

Historically, the 30-day I1 is accurate at peaks and at return to +6.5 if the peak is higher.  We are past the peak, which caught the earlier high, and the return to 6.5 occurs 5/26.

If the lead in raw I1 no longer exists then the market will break the lower edge of the trading range today and I'll be back short via QID and TWM.  Otherwise I'll short at SPX 1350.