3/21 3:50

Stock market is more than likely in a iv wave with a pop ahead tonight/tomorrow, only to come back to near the wave iv bottom, 12,010 DJI.  No reason for me to get long until then or until a decline takes it back to 11,860 (less likely). 

3/21 2:10

Stock market is going sideways in an apparent 4th wave.  I'll be able to buy on the retracement after a 5th completes at around this price level, so I'm not in a hurry to buy.    SPX is bumping against it's 50-day.
The following chart is weekly monetary base 10-week ROC vs. silver.  The latest data point is March 9 and the base is moving sharply higher.  The correlation between Fed asset purchases and monetary base is imperfect so I am not assuming that the rate of change of monetary base will coincide with the end of QE2.  Rather, I am assuming it's ascent will slow prior.  When the ROC declines below 10% that will be the top in precious metals.  Since the data is released only bi-weekly we probably won't see this happen until after the silver top.

3/21 11:30

An alternate count is now equal probability with the 5 up.  The iii wave below is longer than i.  If the market goes into a triangle/rectangle and stays above wave i then this count is validated.  If the market deeply retraces back to below 11,920 then the original 5 up is valid.

As for precious metals, they peak concurrent with ROC of monetary base and this will not peak in March and maybe not in April.  The weekly base numbers are strong so far in March.    

3/21 9:45

Today's rally pierced DJI critical resistance and overlapped wave 1 so the trend is up.  It also completed a 5 up from last week's lows and I will buy on a pullback to the 4th wave range.  I expect traders will sell on this approach into the 50-day M/A.

3/21 pre-open

Slow progress by TEPCO, but the market anticipates that they will turn it around.  I1 peaks on Friday and I'm taking it slow on the final leg up.  Stock futures are coming back up to their 50-day M/As (1300 in the SP futures) and approaching their wave 1 lows.  DJ futures wave 1 is at 11,964, vs. 11942 currently.

Cash behavior means more to me than the futures, so the DJI cash wave 1 low at 11,984 and the envelope of critical resistance at 11,987.  The DJI 50-day is also at around this level so it is key resistance. 

I'll post responses to the comments for the Weekly later today.