4/6 11:30

Until 4/19 I'm just puttering in my data.  I'm flat all markets and spending time in research and programming.  
According to their sentiment gauges I can't buy bonds or the dollar for quite a while yet.  So this leads me to conclude that during the upcoming stock market decline the flight to quality will not engulf the dollar or bonds.  I believe that Ben has screwed the pooch with QE2 and that international portfolios are rapidly restructuring away from dollar investments.  I'm not saying that in a serious stock market decline that the dollar and bonds will not benefit and rise somewhat as the crisis unfolds.  I am saying that until Ben is removed or the Fed madate is shifted away from full employment (by Ron Paul and friends) that the huge capital shifts in times of crisis will be concentrated in less Keynsian markets.  The United States of Keynes is now established and is in bitter war with the Austrians.

The dollar indicates similar soundings.  Normally I would buy dollars/bonds to ride a declining I1.  Not this time.  As can be seen below the dollar initially rallied off of it's October bottom in line with
it's sentiment gauge, but started it's decline in December, even though it's sentiment gauge continued
upward.  This indicates powerful fundamental forces overriding normal cyclical shifts in psychology.

4/6 9:45

Back home last night and caught up on rest.  I can't use some of my tools in hotels because they require more horsepower than my laptops can deliver.  Good to be back.
I1 double-bottomed starting yesterday and has a top 4/18-4/19.  I sold my SDS yesterday but I thought that today would offer a trading range or mild downward bias.  However, it appears that bullish sentiment won't allow a normal correction to unfold.
Although the nominal I1 peak is behind us it remains at very high levels. +7 is the threshold, but the depth of an upcoming I1 decline governs the behavior of the market within an I1 cycle as well. By the time the Mid-may I1 peak comes in I believe we will be past the stock market high, but that will be the time frame for the bear train leaving the station.  With monetary imbalances in full swing and without the support of upcoming QE to distort the natural sentiment shift indicated by I1, a decline with some real meat on it should occur.

The stock market finished wave (iii) last week and wave (iv) yesterday.  However (v) unfolds will probably coincide with the I1 peak 4/18.  A slightly lower probability is 4/26 when I1 declines below +7.  For those comfortable with waiting until the bearish trend begins to manifest itself mid-May is viable because this bear should not start out with a crash.  However, missing the I1 sell signal then would be a mistake.

The PM1 sentiment gauge bottomed Friday, ushering a final metals rally into the end of April.  I sold ZSL Friday at 23.21.

4/5 9:45

I1 bottoms today or tomorrow.  I'm selling SDS and EUO at the close today.  I sold ZSL last Friday.

4/4 pre-open

Heading into Albuquerque.  Will be online this afternoon.

4/3 Action-Reaction

I posted the Weekly with charts of Fed assets, aggregates, and industrial cost inflation.  These measures are reaching extremes that are causing reactions around the world.  The dollar is slowly being replaced  in international transactions.  However, here in the U.S. the reaction has been a tea party congress intent on dramatically slowing the growth of government spending.  If they fail then the U.S. will slide down into hyper-inflation as the dollar quickly loses it's reserve currency status.  However, all the House need do is act as spoiler, failing to pass liberal budget proposals and failing to pass debt ceiling increases and allowing spending shutdowns as the vehicle for getting serious entitlement reform.  Thus, I don't see the dollar sliding off the end of the world until at least 2013.  If the Dems take back the House in the 2012 election (or look like it a week before) then getting back into precious metals will be the path to take.
The Fed is coming under increasing scrutiny by Congress and we can forget about QE3.  The growth of the Fed balance sheet has slowed to $13B a month while the Fed buys $26B in Treasuries and sells off $11B a month in MBS and Agencies under the cover of QE2. This will result in April and beyond reductions in monetary base and M1 growth rates.  Ron Paul is the chairman of the House Monetary Policy Subcomittee of the Financial Services Committee and will bring the Fed under increasing scrutiny and congressional review of it's policies and activities.  This is a more important event than most realize.
I believe that the congressional gridlock will be bearish the metals and stock market.
Ultimately the dollar will be worthless, but silver and gold have already discounted this event coming much sooner than I believe it will.  Since 2002 silver has increased 900% and has doubled as a result of QE2.  I expect the dollar to lose it's reserve currency status several years from now, UNLESS the house caves in and allows the deficits to grow unchecked.  We already know what Ben is and he fooled me once, with QE2.  Right now there are a thousand investor sites preaching the inevitable collapse of the dollar and they are all pushing gold and silver.  I got out of gold at 1220 and silver at 22+.  I expect to buy them back at lower prices, with patience.