3/10 Daily Commentary

Silver 90-minute closed below 17.03, my trigger level, but I held off shorting more silver.  SLV the cash silver ETF closed right on its trigger level to the tick. This makes me cautious until some more downside occurs overnight.
A momentous event has occurred.  The S&P futures double-topped the January high to the tick: 1147.90.
The stock market blue chips continue in their trading range.  Call me Mr. Smoochie but I would rather follow a general than a guy playing fantasy football on one screen and day-flipping internet stocks on the other.  The spec juices have been running into the Nasdaq since opening day, March 9 last year. Here is a sobering thought:

How would you like to be sipping beer, playing fantasy football, and flipping internet stocks right into a brick wall? Ouch!  Momentum works until it doesn't work, then Mr. MO devours you.  I am not interested in the Nasdaq now because Mr. Smoochie is fatuosly gratuitous toward the generals.

The S&P is part brick-and-mortar and part tech so it is somewhere between an NCO and a general, call it a colonel.  The 15-minute chart of the colonel has been climbing a 54-unit M/A, getting tighter and tighter to it. The trigger for my further shorts lies .56% beyond placing the trigger at 1136.70.

Now, here is where the DJI is over the last 5 days.  The neckline produced a spastic knee-jerk in the last half-hour.  The breakdown will occur overnight, not in the day session.  One must be early if one is to get a piece of the worm.  (I hope you are eating now.)  Why?  Because the entire world is looking at charts and discovering the same flash points and they eat noodles, kangaroo, and other un-American things and do not play fantasy football.  They play the Art of War board games from the time they are tots.  They will sell and will keep selling until we open up 2%-3% down.  Then what will you do?  Will you have the guts to bite the bullet and sell into a massive decline?  Not on your life!  You'll wait for a snap-back rally that never comes and with your luggage at your side fondly wish that the train had stopped at your station. "The Express blew me off.  It wasn't supposed to do that!" will roll ceaselessly through your mind and you will return to the chat rooms with the other fantasy football players and watch the internet stocks gouge your eyes out.

Now, here is a final sobering thought (just left my AA meeting) on the DJI: