3/8 Daily Commentary

Our decline could have started Friday with a simple flat or zigzag.  If this were the case the stock market would have opened down.  It turned out that Greece found some EU buyers for it's bonds and a sigh of relief was issued around the world.  Asia was not relevant because they had to play catch-up to the rally in the U.S. Friday.  Fast-forward to Europe and Greece stock market traded up to +1.25%.  It closed up +.10%.  DAX and CAC opened up but then trended down to a modest negative close. 
U.S. opens on the heels of the "Greek salvation".  This makes the top an expanded flat, with a slightly higher high than the orthodox top on Friday.  The DJI hit it's top at 9:35,  S&P500 at 9:41.  The Nasdaq continued to make slight new highs until 1:02. 
Reposting the NDX 1-minute chart to show a succession of ABC after the orthodox top Friday at 2:00.

The area within the channel lines is nothing but ABC corrective moves and is distribution.  A lot of bullish sentiment on the Nasdaq was burned through today.  Every rally met with stiff resistance a point above the last high and every rally was defeated.  Finally, and most important, the breakdown from the distribution zone was accompanied by a snap-back rally right to the lower channel line AND WAS TURNED BACK.  Another distribution phenomenon occurred in the XMI blue-chip index.  It formed a Head-and-Shoulders and closed below the neckline and at the low of the day.  Critical support exists at 1165.20 and 1164.20. It the XMI opens lower tomorrow it is very close to these levels.  If broken, look out below.

S&P500 support at 1136.60 which is it's H&S neckline. 

Silver is close to critical support.  The following is an hourly chart and a 30-hour simple M/A.  My rule for selling weakness in silver is to sell whenever an hourly close prints .5% below the M/A.  Currently the short point is 17.19 May futures.  Will monitor overnight and perhaps get in via ARCA.