Currently 15% short SDS and 10% TLT.
Reduced exposure because I believe that the stock market completed a 5-wave from the top and a rally is due.
All of the above are the reasons for my lightening up near the close.
a) A completed 5-wave from the high implies a tradeable bounce
b) The H&S neckline is not far from today's close (10, 970 in DJI).
c) DJI closed at 11,004 for round-number support.
d) I don't like going into weekends with big positions.
Is there anything more than a bounce ahead Monday?. Doubt it. I1 is down and all of the moving averages I care about are above the market or very far below it.
Psychologically, have the market down sharply and close on it's lows ahead of a weekend scares people. So, a 100-point rally would make people kick themselves because they sold on scary day and they will buy on relief day. Let it be so!
:Here is the DJI H&S:
Steve
ReplyDeleteFor someone who does not move in and out of the market as much as you do would you add to your shorts and stay short now until 6/8 bottom? I am shorting US small caps using a ETF.
Jack,
ReplyDeleteI am waiting for a pop upward on Monday. I'll post with the details pre-open. The beginning of a bear market is a topping out filled with buying on dips. I hope that this offers an additional opportunity to sell near SPX 1200.