Thursday, June 3, 2010

6/3 2:00

My wave count of the decline since 4/26 is a 5-wave.  This is a large wave and wave 2 will need to be bigger or stretch into a long consolidation in order to fit with this count.  I1 bottoms Monday, ending the selling pressure.  This should free the market for extending the upwave to complete wave 2.  The post with the cash SPX wave count labels this morning's high as wave C.   I believe that it is but the first wave of a 5-wave uptrend and should have been labelled (i).   Holding shorts past Monday will probably be suicidal.  However, on the slim chance that the 85-hour futures M/A - 20points can be broken then EWI is right and I am wrong.
EWI changed their short-term count to correspond with mine (labelling a 5-wave off of the 5/25 low and calling for a new high which we got this morning.  Now EWI is showing my wave count from the 4/26 high as alternate and if the market rallies after the I1 bottoms this will be their primary count.  My interpretation has allowed me to keep 95% of the gains made from the move off of 4/26, liquidating at the bottom and expecting a prolonged upward correction.  I1 is only one piece of the picture, the accurate wave count and technical picture give a complete view.  Even though EWI and other counters have differed from my count I believe that my short-term and intermediate-term counts are correct.  Short-term count for futures and cash are now aligned with today's rally making either wave (i) of an extended rise or wave C of a completed upward correction.  I1 has kept the market in a trading range within a bullish short-term background.
The above view is not inconsistent with the new I1 longer-term trade signal since the low is due the first week of July and a lot of volatility can occur between now and then.

2 comments:

  1. Steve,
    You had previously said you were not planning on playing this next up move over the next two weeks or so. Is that still your plan?
    Charles

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  2. I don't plan on it at this point. If I do I want the market to keep finding support at SP 1070 but with the weak jobs number...

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