If SP futures decline to a 30-minute close below 1052 I'll sell it.
As discussed in earlier posts my wave count differs from Elliott Wave International. If EWI is correct then the advance today is all she wrote and a vicious decline follows here. Their count is based on the wave 1 low falling on 5/6, the rally to 5/12 as wave 2, the decline to 5/25 as wave (i) and the rally to 6/3 as wave (ii). If EWI is correct then we are in wave (iii) of 3 and a violent decline is imminent.
I stayed long despite the afternoon decline. If the futures market breaks 1052 on a 30-minute close then the odds favor a break of 1040. If 1040 falls then my count is wrong and wave 2 upward is not still unfolding.
I1 is up but not on a buy signal.
There is a longer-term I1 sell signal in effect from 4/26 through 7/8 but this offers a broad range (it just means no move past 11,000).
So, I am cautiously bullish short-term but ready to step aside a short distance from here.
Remember, the stock market's job is to scare you witless.
Remember, the stock market's job is to scare you witless.
Steve
ReplyDeleteHave you found your wave count to differ from EWI before and found you were correct and they were wrong in the past? I do not want to miss this next move down. I am sitting 100% cash right now. As of the close the down trend is still in play.
Yes, in the past I subscribed to Short-Term Update and found it was difficult to follow their advice and make money. That's why I use I1 to establish my most probably count. I1 is up so in my book wave 2 is still developing. The proof is in my Trade History that I post on the page of that name. The criteria are in the Daily Commentary. I'll post if the futures decline their support and this will be 12 full points away from SP 1040. You'll have plenty of time. I1 is up, however.
ReplyDeleteOk, I will keep an eye. Thanks Steve
ReplyDeleteSteve,
ReplyDeleteyour first graph looks like a classic cup with handle
Should be more upside ahead.
ReplyDelete