Friday, July 9, 2010

7/9 10:30

The futures have not impulsively broken out of their rectangle. 
The cash DJI counts clearly as a 5th wave, given the continued rally without any correction overnight.  My count was based on the futures, which showed a clear count as posted yesterday.  Now I have a conundrum, with a cash count different than a futures count.  The DJI shows a 5th wave in progress.  I have labelled this as an ongoing Minuette1 in order to fit into the I1 time perspective.  In other words the imminent peak marks the top of only the 1st of 5 waves.  The S markers are the Sub-Minuette components.
The futures are now also resolving at the same degree:

This also explains why there have been only small corrections.  I have been looking at the waves as Minuette instead of Sub-Minuette and expecting large upcoming waves.  With the termination of Minuette1 I will finally have my expectation.  This labelling also allows more time for the rally to fit into the I1 perspective.

5 comments:

  1. Steve

    Then a correction is coming and this could be a good spot to exit for the weekend?

    Jack C

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  2. Hello again, SO do I understand you correctly that you are saying this is only completing wave 1 up and so this is a bull trend?

    All others using elliot wave tend to say this is either end of an A or B and so this is just the corrective phase of a bear trend. Or did I misunderstand?

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  3. If I were just looking at the market with Elliott Wave I would count this as a completed ABC upward correction of the downtrend since 6/21, with the downtrend resuming imminently. However, with the I1 and the technical oversold I count this as a upward C wave in progress, with only the 1st wave now completing.

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  4. "However, with the I1 and the technical oversold I count this as a upward C wave in progress, with only the 1st wave now completing."

    Ok so you feel it is a corrective wave with the potential to go as high as 1330 SPY, so a near complete wave 2 correction?

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  5. SPX 1130 would be the max allowed for the current count. I think Minuette2 has potential down at least 140 DJI points.

    ReplyDelete