Friday, July 9, 2010

7/9 11:05

Here is the lastest I1 chart.  I have expanded the amplitude for readability, so divide the values by 2 if you want to look at it in light of the trading rules thresholds.
Given the wave count posted at 10:30, the market can easily be seen to have complete the entire move from last Thursday's bottom.  However, with the I1 we can see that the rally will continue after correcting.
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3 comments:

  1. AnonymousJuly 9, 2010 at 8:20 AM

    Steve, it would appear that you want to fade the 7/29-8/13 I1 uptick. I could understand wanting to hedge yourself given Q2 GDP coming out on 7/30 and all that might entail. Having said that I am not sure that even figures into your thought process. I did want to confirm your apparent plands of fading the 7/29-8/13 I1 up move. Thx BAR

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  2. Steve KotelesJuly 9, 2010 at 8:46 AM

    BAR,
    I'm concerned with the jobs reports and FOMC. Yes, the I1 shows a slight decline from 7/21 to 7/29. I intend to stay long through the 21st. Then, I'll be in cash through the 29th. If the market exceeds 10,600 on the move up to the 21st then the wave count changes and the entire decline from 4/26 is an ABC and the correction is for a larger degree. In this case I'll buy the 29th. Otherwise I expect the market to not exceed 10,600 and I'll stay in cash after the 21st looking for a shorting opportunity in August.

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  3. Steve KotelesJuly 9, 2010 at 8:51 AM

    I am bearish the longer trend so I am very cautious being long unless the I1 is in a formal buy signal, which is not the case going into August.

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