1/21 Weekly Commentary

The rally from this morning's low was not impulsive.  For the Nasdaq there was no rally and prices closed at yesterday's lows and at important support.  Nasdaq needs 1 more low to complete it's abc from Tuesday's high.  AAPL has weighed down the Nasdaq this week.

On the other end the DJI is forming what appears to be a triangular 4th wave to complete it's up sequence.  This chart is bullish for Monday.

Critical support M/A is now at 11,820 with a break level of 11,660 and rising.
In between the S&P shows signs of strength and weakness.  It closed near a confluence of important short-term M/As.  This configuration allows for a slight downtick Monday morning to give the Nasdaq a chance to register it's ideal low.  SP futures breaking 1266 would be a strong signal to lighten up.

I currently hold 6% SSO and am short gold futures.  Rather than short the stock market once this 5 wave is complete I intend to short the Euro.  I1 is up well into February.  A Euro short will be on the same side of the risk asset scale.  Both the Euro and dollar index moved farther away from their hourly M/As which means I'll need to use less reliable shorter-term M/As to initiate the trade if I want to get into the market before some of the technical ammunition is used up.

I'll be going short Euro Sunday on a decline below 1-minute, 157-unit M/A minus 20 cents.

Gold short is working well and is another alternative to a stock short.  The level of bullishness reached fever pitch and will take more time and decline to wear off.  This market is in a 3rd of a 3rd.

Stop is above 1370.