6/18 pre-open

Off to Albuquerque today.  Should be a rally day.  Order to buy 2% SDS at DJI 10,610.

6/17 Daily Commentary

Wave (iv) is complete.  The abcde points are plainly visible. The noon post identified the low point of wave iv (the nominal low) but the orthodox low is 30,344 at 3:17.  5 waves will proceed from here and this low will not be violated until wave (v) is complete. 

Now, I don't want to give the impression that counting waves is easy.  It's not.  But it is a lot easier knowing when the peak will occur than operating in the dark.  Must I wait through Monday to declare wave (v) of C of 2 complete?  No, but I will give the structure far more leeway to extend until noon Monday rolls around.  Right now we are in wave (v) with 2 days left.  However, 5th waves tend to be short in time and price. Also, I am looking at serious resistance between 10,460 and 10,615.  So, with 2 days to go I have to figure there is no more than 180 points left in the rally.  10,516 sticks out due to a weekly M/A and it is the 50% retracement point for the decline from 4/26.  If the market hits this on a 5-wave then I will go in with a small position ahead of Monday afternoon. 

6/17 3:00

The stock market is engaged in a 4th wave triangle and 5th wave has not started yet.  As can be seen wave (iii) extended from 9,785 to 10,410, very large.  The correction of wave (iii) is consuming time, not price, and is taking a typical 4th wave form, a triangle/rectangle.

6/17 noon

(iv) of c of 2 looks complete.  DJI/SPX/XMI fulfilled expectations by overlapping 4th wave or lesser degree (or iv of (iii) of 2).  Nasdaq overlapped it's extended (iii) correctly.  My wave count is heavily influenced by the position of I1 relative to it's predicted top (Monday).

Here is the technical composite.  Buy signal in effect until it declines to +4.  Very close, but we need more rally to get us there.

6/17 11:00

This is a normal 4th wave correction of the rally and that the 5th wave lies ahead.  Apart from the I1 peaking Monday the daily technical composite has not yet reached +4 or below to neutralize the buy signal.  Support is at 10,283.  Critical support break at 10,150 and rising. A lot of people are chomping at the bit but the gong hasn't sounded to start the race yet.