11/11 Daily Commentary

I'm currently short silver futures, stop 28.27.The stab at critical support failed to pierce it again.  This support has held for 2 months as Ben has blown into the sails of the Good Ship America in his bathtub.   We're his playthings and he has as much awareness of the consequences as any 4-year old. 
G-20 is going splendidly, no wars declared.  I don't believe that the statements that U.S. pols utter is subterfuge, but genuine ignorance.  The big quote today by Obama: "Obama also added to recent U.S. government remarks defending U.S. monetary easing, saying that, telling reporters that “if the U.S. isn’t growing that’s not good for the rest of the world.  If individual countries are engaging in practises that are purposely designed to boost their exports at the expense of others, that produces problems as opposed to solving them,”.   If he were aware of the incongruity of that last sentence then he should be awarded the Hypocrite of the Year award.  His intelligence is oriented around things other than economics, so I don't think he got it.  His trading partners know what the Fed is doing and are quietly erecting capital barriers to prevent dollars from flooding in.  Trade barriers follow capital barriers as night follows day.  Barriers go up only when trust evaporates.  Trade barriers go up when open hostility reigns.  So Obama targetted South Korea because they export so many more cars than they import.  A step into the Korean market reveals that auto imports have increased from <1% in 2001 to 7.21% 2008 but Koreans vastly prefer EU and Japanese cars to American.  Bad target, U.S. delivers poor value vis-a-vis the Korean Won.  If the U.S. can't find genuinely closed markets outside of China then we should go ahead and attack China.  No cahones for that one, the Chinese are already erecting fences around themselves to shield from Ben's great flood.  Push them further and capital barriers expand to other, nasty things.
DJI critical support remains at 11,210.  SP futures support is rising and should get to today's low by the open tomorrow.

If DJI 11,210 falls then this M/A minus 7.5 points is the final domino.
Crude seems to have de-coupled from the stock market and I'll be going short futures this evening.  It's forward sentiment gauge is bearish for the next several months and the wave count shows a completed abc up from the May lows.  SCO is the double-short ETF.

Dollar is in a major bull market.  Minute 1 up is complete and Minute 2 may be complete.  The count from the 77.58 low is a 3 with further 3-wave chops to nominal new highs.  This is not how 3rd of 3rds behave.  As the stock market goes so should the dollar.  As the dollar goes so should the stock market.  The potential for further wave 2 development causes me to stand aside.  Taking out 78.65 overnight will get me long.  This is above the daily highs registered over the past several weeks.