11/15 Daily Commentary

Came in 4% SDS and short 1% SI futures.  Market rallied to DJI 5-minute, 370-unit M/A and was turned back.  Last week this M/A was broken by more than 1.35% triggering a sell signal.  This was an important event because it's been almost 3 months since critical support or resistance was last broken.

Wave (iv) is more discernible on the SPX chart where it formed a nice descending triangle.
Bought another 4% SDS at 26.24 and shorted 1% DJ futures at 10,217. 
The dollar actually rallied as stocks rallied today, indicating that market sentiment is pushing upward hard.
DX futures closed above the 2 prior highs put in as the base was building.  This frees the dollar for a spring forward. to 80.  I re-entered the dollar long at 78.59 having taken the bulk of the initial long move last week.

Here is the dollar's forward sentiment gauge which timed this low well.  This gauge will rally for at least 4 months.  The dollar inversely drives commodity prices.

Crude did not rally with stocks and is showing uncharacteristic weakness (probably because it is correlated more strongly with the dollar).  I did not re-enter a short trade because I'm already in 3 correlated futures positions.

Silver broke down from a large triangle last week, is in wave 3 down, and I'm holding short until a big 5 down completes.  This could be down to $20 level.