Tuesday, November 9, 2010
11/9 pre-open
The markets just marked time yesterday. Count is the same, stocks early in the final 5th wave for Minor 3 of the C wave from 2009.
The dollar index is retracing it's first 5 up from it's bottom. Currently at daily resistance, a decline to 76.67 is expected. Until this reaction is complete commodities and stocks will get a lift.
DX long is my only position as I stand aside for it's Minute 2 low.
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Based on your prior forecast (yesterday's post), I assume that you anticipate that the likely USD rally will be short lived? Or do stocks and the dollar both go up January through March?
ReplyDeleteMy best scenario is that the dollar completes a larger 5 up in January and has a 2 month correction. The Fed may not be allowed to finish QE2.
ReplyDeleteNote: $COMPQ filled a 20 point gap left over from 1/3-1/4/2008. This was the last open upside gap that I am aware of. I haven't been paying attention to it lately, because I really didn't expect it would be filled for years.
ReplyDeleteSPX
ReplyDeleteBEN!
http://99ercharts.blogspot.com/2010/11/spx_09.html
so what is your long term target for the dollar ? over next months ?
ReplyDeleteES and ZB
ReplyDeleteHeckuva job, Ben.
http://99ercharts.blogspot.com/2010/11/es-zb_09.html
99er
ReplyDeletePart of the goal was to drive the dollar down and keep the government's interest rates low. EH! Ben says he wants to revitalize the American economy, but the whole world is turning against him (and us by extension). The demos are his only support and they are weakening day by day. Academics should stay where they belong.
Steve, I'm wondering whether your I1 formula includes sunspot cycles. Apparently Charles Nenner believes sunspot cycles affect stock market behavior. According to him, the correlation is positive. That is, more sunspots results in bullish stock market behavior and vice versa. As a result of the sunspot cycle forecast, he's calling for a stock market HIGH in 2013. That's contrary to what you're forecasting. Here's what he says:
ReplyDelete"A few years ago, we sent out this prediction of the Sun Spot cycle
Our assumption has been for a long time that a high Sun Spot intensity is good for stocks, while a low intensity usually leads to bear markets
The idea behind this is that sunspot activity influences human behavior down here, including the stock market
We are including this chart again, since, until now, Equity prices have largely followed the sunspot cycle
If this will continue, it will lead to a major high in 2013
This high corresponds to a projected high in 2013 that we have mentioned for years, calculated based on our cycle model
It will be interesting to watch as we get closer, because cycles predict a significant low after the sunspot cycle tops"
Here is his forecast:
ReplyDeleteSTOCKS
The Cycles Show Final Highs Soon, Then Down, Next Highs In 2012
High Conviction Trends
•Stocks peak around the third week in April around 1170,
•Pullback May - June, potentially up to 10-20%
•Then recovery and final peak in August (no level given)
•Then down for the next 6-12 months, potentially to around March 2009 lows well into 2011,
•At some point around mid 2011, stocks to recover to prior highs peaking in 2012
•Then begins a longer term downtrend from 2013 for many years. Indeed, in prior interviews Nenner has called the period a ‘lost decade’ similar to that experienced by Japan. FYI, his cycles regarding military conflicts point to a big one in 2013.
Nenner's forecast was for final top August then down to the 2009 lows over the next 6-12 months.
ReplyDeleteThis was issued 4/8/2010.
The dollar made a new high. Are you changing your count?
ReplyDeleteThe email from Nenner re sunspots and the forecasted high in stocks came out today. His April forecast is outdated and has been revised many times since then!
ReplyDeleteI personally don't like his forecasts, they're often ambiguous and he changes them a lot. If he's using cycles, why does he need to revise them so often?
If he were so keen on sunspots then he would not have changed his forecast and emphasized them after a big rally. Sounds like B.S. Sunspots are a part of I1 but the number of sunspots and their size don't correlate directly to the size of market moves.
ReplyDeleteI agree, BS. I subscribed to his forecasts on a trial basis, but will not renew my sub.
ReplyDelete