Crude rallied with stocks to a new rally high with $100 on the wags' lips. I count wave complete and the sentiment gauge is negative into Feb. Crude found support at 91.50 but if stocks fold it will crumble.
Monday, January 3, 2011
12/3 Daily Commentary
I1 peak was on Friday, but not only was it a weekend peak but a shortened session. I stayed flat until Sunday evening and shorted NQ futures at 1228.75 at a new high but the market kept moving up to 1264 before turning. Any new high was a 5th wave. I stayed short because this was an initial small position but I was surprised by the extent of the rally. Lots of optimism out there. When SP futures broke their 15-minute M/A late in the day I bought 2% SDS at 23.29. I'll look for a bounce to add on. SP futures 30-minute M/A is down at 1261.25. I expect a bounce there.
The dollar moved up today but remained in a basing pattern. The low today at 79.23 launched a rally that so far is a 3-wave. It can become a 5 as long as 79.34 is not broken. Resistance at the 60-minute M/A (green line) is currently at 79.445, broken by a rally to 79.625.
The big picture M/A is at 79.86. I'll add on if this is broken by 16 cents.
Crude rallied with stocks to a new rally high with $100 on the wags' lips. I count wave complete and the sentiment gauge is negative into Feb. Crude found support at 91.50 but if stocks fold it will crumble.
I'll add more later tonight.
Crude rallied with stocks to a new rally high with $100 on the wags' lips. I count wave complete and the sentiment gauge is negative into Feb. Crude found support at 91.50 but if stocks fold it will crumble.
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Of note: VIX filled only remaining downside gap today, NIKKEI is thus far conforming to a bear pennant (with 2 up just completed) on the five year chart, and the YEN continues its 2+ year downtrend.
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