I'm long DX futures and hold 2% SDS and 4% TLT.
Futures traded for a half session today. I need 16.5 cents above this M/A to confirm the next leg of an extended run. Currently that's 77.915 but this will be declining overnight. The dollar is only forming 3-waves up so it could be an extended base.
The decline to the low on the 18th was key. The key 90-minute M/A has an envelope of .55% on a 90-minute close. Price crossed this M/A (blue line below) at 78.05 and the computed envelope limit is 77.62. The low 90-minute close was 77.625. This is still the key stop value, a 90-minute close below 77.62 will get me out. Resistance at 78.20 will be stiff.
The stock market is playing out according to script, with a strong decline breaking significant futures M/As. The next stop for the train is SP futures 1323. I will probably exit ETFs at that point if it occurs during the day session and wait for a bounce to short again. If not then I'll hold through the bounce. The time horizon is as long as 3/3 and as low as SP 1280.
My stop is .5% above the 30-minute M/A on a 30-minute closing basis (blue line below).
Bonds are benefitting from stock declines around the world so I'll keep holding TLT.
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