2/22 Daily Commentary

I came into today long 1% DX futures, long 2% SDS, and 4% TLT.  Shorting stocks last week was something I ordinarily would not have done with such a tiny downmove in I1 until 3/4, but the wave count and other indicators said it was a low-risk trade.  All 3 positions were trades that correlated with a return to safety and away from risk, at least temporarily.  Still, trading the uptrend in stocks and commodities was a bit of a knuckle-biter.
I sold DX at 78.19 for a good run from 77.82, SDS at 21.14 for 30 ticks, and held onto TLT which has done well throughout the day.  All in all, a good day.  I blew an opportunity to re-enter the short, having calculated the re-entry price perfectly due to a mis-count of the early morning recovery rally.  Until the stock market breaks critical support I'm using my chipper, not my driver.  A few hundred dollars on a trade is my chip shot.  Critical support will be broken at DJI 12,135.  After that I'll step up the size of the position.  Until then the market has to show me.  The 5 down reached 12,176 so the 3rd wave could break critical support.
I have a completed 5 down from the high Friday in SPX, midcaps, and Nasdaq so I'll get another shot at shorting back at the SP futures 30-minute M/A (blue).  This time I'll use futures instead of ETFs.

Bonds were up as a result of flight to safety and an over-sold condition along with a rising sentiment gauge.

The dollar is bullish until a 90-minute close below 77.62.  I'm not in this market at this time.
Precious metals were sharply higher but I can't short until mid-March at the earliest. 
 
In summary, did a lot of things right and blew a couple of opportunities.