3/15 10:00

While the Japanese crisis is an exogenous event my rule set is never to go against the direction of I1.  The best I can do is stand aside until the 25th.  This date will probably time a secondary peak.
I have 2% TLT so I am getting some benefit from the decline.  My short Euro was only intended as an offset to long stocks so it did it's job, partially mitigating the decline in SSO overnight.  Without a long stock position I closed out the short Euro.
The rule set is clearly delineated in Intro and Concepts but I'll post it here.  We are currently in an I1 buy signal since the 3/25 peak is >5.5, so the buy signal rules apply.

1) Buy signal rules:

a) As long as next I1 peak > 5.5 buy the low or 0 and exit at peak or when I1 returns back to 9.0, whichever is less. Initial position may be up to 12% of capital. Position can be added to when .56% upside break of 15-min, 54-unit M/A and again when 1.35% upside break of 5-min, 380 unit M/A.
b) If low<0 then buy half the distance from low to 0.
c) Use peaks as opportunity to take profits. Ignore selling a peak if the subsequent trough > 4.8 (stay long).

2) Shorting signal rules:
a) As long as next I1 trough < 3.25 sell the peak or 8, exit low prior to rally above +3. Initial position may be up to 12% of capital. Position can be added to when .56% downside break of 15-min, 54-unit M/A and again when 1.35% downside break of 5-min, 380 unit M/A.
b) Exit low prior to rally above +3. If low<0 then cover at half distance from low to 0
c) Use troughs as opportunity to take profits. Ignore a trough if the subsequent peak < 0 (stay short).


3) In the absence of buy and sell signals the tactical rules are:
a) I1 uptrend, OK to buy up to 6% at I1 bottom, but must wait for .56% upside break of 15-min, 54-unit M/A before buying more. Cannot short until 1.35% downside break of 5-min, 380 unit M/A.
b) I1 downtrend, OK to short up to at I1 top, but must wait for .56% downside break of 15-min, 54-unit M/A before shorting more. Cannot go long until 1.35% upside break of 5-min, 380-unit M/A.

4) For longer-term traders:
a) stay long until final peak or until it falls below 9.0, whichever is lower.
b) stay short as long as next peak <3.0.
c) ignore I1 moves lasting less than 1 week or with a swing < .5.

If an I1 turn date is preceded or followed by a day with a value within .35 of the extreme it is possible for the turn to occur on either date but favoring the extreme date. On the non-extreme date use the 5-minute, 380-unit EMA to signal that the turn has indeed occurred then.