3/16 Daily Commentary

Today should have marked the low as a 3 wave down from 2/18 highs.  There are 7 trading days until I1 peaks and if SPX breaks 1301 to the upside we can see a new high.  I bought 4% SSO at 48.07 and another 2% at 47.42.  I'll be selling 3% if and when SPX hits 1299.90. 
I included a count chart from the 2/18 high with the 1:35 post today.  I counted a 5 up in the Nasdaq.
This is still a news market, but barring a meltdown, we should have seen the lows.  Sheez I hate news markets, but I guess we had all better get used to them.  EWI does not agree with my count and looks for a continuation of the decline.  I'll sell 2% SSO when SP futures reach their 30-minute M/A, another 2% at SPX 1287 and keep the rest through 3/25.  A decline below today's low in futures or cash will prove me wrong and get me out.

The Fed indicated no more QE after QE2 expires, ostensibly due to economic strength.  The real reason is that Ben knows it would be the end of his reign if he cranked up another round.

Silver hit it's 21-day M/A and the count of the move from 2002 appears complete.  PM1, the precious metals forward sentiment gauge, enters a plateau period in 2 days that bottoms 4/1.  Then a spirited rally occurs to the end of April.  This will probably play out as a decline starting next Monday for 2 weeks and a re-test of the highs at the end of April.