Tuesday, March 15, 2011
3/15 Daily Commentary
The most important trend this year will occur after March 25. Last night I carried a hedged position with a short Euro and long bond position balancing the 4% SSO. I covered the Euro short but I'm holding long TLT. I1 is rising into 3/25, but as long as the market does not exhibit a buy signal from 1 of the 3 moving averages that I use then I am standing aside. DJ futures 50-day M/A needs 200 points above it. The DJ 5-minute, 370-unit M/A needs 1.35% above it. The closest is the SP futures 30-minute M/A which I will ignore.
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Steve, I noticed that a number of commodities are starting to exhibit a lot of volatility with limit down days (margin calls?). I know you have done some analysis on gold. What is the call there. I am starting to wonder when people wake up and realize that while they can now post gold as collateral that is about as liquid as it gets. Unless of course you want to cash it in at a gold for cash store at a 50% discount.
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