Friday, April 8, 2011

4/8 pre-open

Party time for risk assets overnight.  With SP futures at 1235 they will hit their prior high another 8 points higher.  Yesterday the Japan quake story caused a test of DJI critical support M/A and it got 60 points below.  I stood aside when the story broke the market but bought 2% SSO at 50 points below on the assumption that an aftershock would be nowhere near the 9.0 they got last month. 


It's time to start wave-counting gold and silver for the upcoming blowoff top.  I'm looking at Minute 3 within Minor 5 within Intermediate 5 within Primary 5 in progress with this rally, then several days of consolidation, then the final rally to the top.  I'm anticipating a top date of 4/28, some topping action, then the real decline starting 5/9-5/10.  Silver will top with gold.
The 5/9-5/10 dates are the return of the PM1 sentiment gauge (above) back below 4.2.  The PM1 is in this Link to PM1 if anyone cares to backtrack it.  The chart above has doubled values so the return threshold is 2.1.  So the strategy is to sell the PM1 peak and the return below the threshold (which should mark the beginning of the decline accleration).
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4 comments:

  1. pimaCanyonApril 8, 2011 at 8:01 AM

    thanks for the update on PM's, Steve! Good luck shorting, it's scary to short a blowoff top because you can never tell just how high the thing it gonna go before it collapses.

    ReplyDelete
  2. pimaCanyonApril 8, 2011 at 8:08 AM

    Do you have any price projections you're looking at for the gold/silver top?

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  3. CarlApril 8, 2011 at 8:16 AM

    Hi Steve, justto mention the link to PM1 for precious metal does NOT work: image link broken.
    Thanks
    Carl

    ReplyDelete
  4. SteveKotelesApril 8, 2011 at 9:00 AM

    I'm looking into why the images are not available. While Google blogger is free, sometimes it takes work to get the obvious right.

    ReplyDelete

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