Wednesday, October 20, 2010

10/20 Daily Commentary

The stock market 5-wave down yesterday was either wave (i) of a downtrend or the completion of the abc from last week's high.
If wave (i) then currently we are in (ii). This is a personality of a carnival huckster with misdirection to make us believe that God is behind the move. Wave (ii) can retrace 100%. The abc up count is complete.
If the down move was just completing abc then either there is more abc action, possibly ekeing out a nominal new high or the bull returns in force and blows by the old high.
I believe that with I1 going down that the huckster has enthralled us. I put a stop at old high 11,151 + 27 points. If DJI beats 11,178 then it is real.


On the dollar front, the overlap of Monday's 77.865 high caused me to sell 1% of my DX position, since this invalidated the impulse idea.  Dollar index traced a 5 down throughout the day and offers a potential trading opportunity.  The green line in the following chart + 9 cents will provide a signal for an upside breakout of the trading range.  If no breakout then the move continues lower.  I sold my 1% DX at 77.46 and put in an order to buy 9 cents beyond the green M/A for a potential move to the 77.90 area.

Silver retraced it's decline back to the base of the descending non-EW triangle formed last week.  It appears poised for decline.

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