Wednesday, November 3, 2010

11/3 Daily Commentary

Stock futures are in rectangle wave 4 of the final C.  Once the pop for wave 5 is complete the ending diagonal should be as well.  I1 is in slight uptick through 11/5 but I expect the top to come in early. 
I'll be shorting index futures on the pop, probably at 1201 SP futures.
The dollar index hit panic selling today on QE2.  The hourly close 10/14 at the low was 76.505.  The hourly close at 4pm today was 76.475.   Sanity restored the market.  Once the stock top is in I'll buy the dollar.
Holding gold short.  It's forward sentiment gauge peaked today for at least a 2 month decline.
This will be the last QE the Fed can perform.  It sought political cover this time by "asking" the Street for a good number.  The new crop of congressmen/women will be at least tea literate and embrace at least in name the evil of fiat money manipulation.  The older hands in the committees will not want to be chastised by the young pups, so a more informed committee will be asking questions of Ben in the future.  Why are we risking 70's style inflation to achieve no useful purpose, other than keeping government's interest rate artificially repressed?  Why not reduce the deficit to keep our rates low?  How exactly does the Fed intend to unwind this huge increase in it's assets?  Oh, it doesn't intend to unwind it because it would disrupt the marketplace.  How does the Fed leveraging it's holdings and, incidentally it's profit,  serve the public interest?  The State Department is telling us that our diplomats are not being invited to meetings concerning foreign government policy toward the U.S.  Can you provide concrete measures to mend our deterioration relations?  Why does the Fed exist in the first place, if their actions have little effect on economic activity?  How exactly are the profits distributed?

2 comments:

  1. Fun and Games
    http://www.slate.com/blogs/blogs/weigel/archive/2010/11/03/ron-paul-to-chair-monetary-policy-subcommittee.aspx

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  2. Steve, I think your economic/political observations are spot on. Today Helicopter Ben pretty much admitted the Fed is manipulating stock prices:
    http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com/2010/11/bernanke-admits-targeting-stock-prices.html
    I do not know how much longer this can last, but I do know it ultimately has to fail. You cannot cure a bubble problem with more bubbles. That is called a ponzi scheme. Here is some good news:
    http://www.slate.com/blogs/blogs/weigel/archive/2010/11/03/ron-paul-to-chair-monetary-policy-subcommittee.aspx

    ReplyDelete