Thursday, November 4, 2010

11/4 9:10

Shorted 1% SP futures 1208.50 near the limit of the ending diagonal.   Cash SPX 3rd wave length limits the 5th to 1208.45.  Let's see how cash trades.  This offers a tight stop.
Bought 2% DZZ short gold at 8.52.  Gold at 1380 is only 7.65 points from the 10/14 high, from which a 5-down is clear.

3 comments:

  1. Steve, I think you can count the ED either way, that is, with wave 5 beginning at the 10/27 low --OR-- at the 11/1 low. If you use the 11/1 low, then I calculate a max length for wave 5 at 1214.08 cash.

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  2. OK, I'll use a short M/A to re-enter the short.

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  3. I hate ED's! When they are unfolding, they can fool you again and again....

    Here's another possible count: What if all the up and down since the 10/19 low is wave 3 of the ED? This morning's high would be the end of that wave 3. Because wave 4 has not yet formed, we don't know whether the TL's will converge or not. If we use the lower TL that's already there (even though the wave 4 end point doesn't have to honor that TL) and draw a parallel line off the end of wave 1, then this hypothetical wave 3 should not exceed 1216 or so spx cash. This count is probably a long shot. For one thing it would make wave 3 longer than wave 1 in both time and price, and ED's usually have wave 1 as the longest.

    So back to the preferred count: So far the line in the sand of 1214.08 has not been breached. Moreover, reversal after Fed day is fairly common.

    Good luck!

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