11/4 Daily Commentary

Came into the day flat except for 1% short gold futures.  Shorted on a scale starting with DJ futures at 11,235, then SP at 1213,  bought SDS at 26.01 and 25.67.  This was all sold/covered. 
Covered DJ at 11375, SP at 1216.  Sold SDS at 25.63. 
I later bought back 4% SDS at 25.63.  I'm holding 4% SDS.
The trade was predicated on the belief that the April high would hold.  SPX closed above that high by over 1 point, so no debating that it fell.  It leaves the 5 down from 2007 open to question.  If prices don't reverse quickly then the alternates must be evaluated. 
Gold traded well above the 10/14 high and even though a 5 down is clearly counted I covered the 1% gold short at the stop price 1389.10.  I still hold the DZZ short gold ETFs.
I sold the 2% ZSL when gold futures pierced 1389 for a sale price of 14.90.
The dollar remains firm and I'll hold long DX until the 265-minute M/A is broken by more than 10 cents. This is currently 75.895. 

The dollar bottomed at 75.76 this morning 9:56.  The dollar stability in the face of the rallies in stocks and commodities could be only oversold behavior.  When working with dollar index futures chart one must ignore the occasional sharp spikes.  They do not appear on the cash charts.  Near-term if DX can take out the blue line, the 150-minute 10-minute M/A then it will be a force to be reckoned with.  The dollar holds the potential to turn all of the other markets and when it exhibits relative strength, even intra-day, it is significant.  The nice thing about a 10-minute chart is that we do not have long to wait.  The dollar index is coiling and I expect an upside breakout.

Here is the I1 chart as of last night's close:

I1 is due to top tomorrow.  I'll run the technical composite tonight and post separately.