Today is an I1 peak day. This is a sell signal at the close, although I shorted early due the wave count. The sell lasts through 11/15. This week has been flooded with news. Elections, Fed's fiat declaration, and finally the jobs report.
Currently short SP futures, short crude futures, long 4% SDS and 2% DZZ (the short gold).
So, I stop the SP at 1224.75, crude at 87.25, and leave the ETFs without stops. I look to increase shorts toward the close.
Longer term, I1 turns positive mid-December through the beginning of March.
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Just a comment: the next big stop for ES500 could be 1234.93 which is exactly 61.8% retrace from Oct2007 high to March09 low. Then the next stop is 78.6% retrace at 1389...Now if July low was only the low of B (with April's high being the high of A), the C wave would look curiously short...thoughts?
ReplyDeleteDo you expect the dollar to weaken again after mid November?
ReplyDeleteOnce the dollar breaks daily resistance which is currently > 78.51 there is no looking back.
ReplyDeleteCarl,
ReplyDeleteIMO there are many counts that could be in play here. First of all, we don't even know for sure that the move down from Oct 07 to Mar 09 should be counted as a 5. The 5 looks better, but you could make a case for a 3.
Second, the move up from Mar 09 to Apr 10 can be counted in lots of different ways. It's likely it's a complex corrective wave, instead of it being a simple A wave. But I have seen a count that labels it a completed 5 wave move. If that's the correct count, then what has transpired since April was correcting that 5 wave impulse. And we could even be in the first wave up of a new impulse as we speak (probably nearing the end of that). That would put us near the end of 1 of 3 up. That is a very bullish count to be sure.
Bottom line for me is that the larger count remains a mystery at this time.
Carl,
ReplyDeleteI think we have seen the high through 11/15. After 12/21 I look for a rally and a big one after 1/10. So if there is a decline then .618 retracement becomes a point to watch come early March. If the decline does not materialize then .786.