2/1 Daily Commentary

I was able to buy SSO near the lower critical support envelope Friday and hang on the show a profit.  I sold 2% SSO this morning and 2% SSO this afternoon.  The stock market appears to have finished wave 3 up.  Only the Nasdaq has not made a new high.  If EWI is right and the top was in last week then the stock market should be immediately turning down.  I1 says that the market will continue up through March but may encounter a bit of turbulence with a very minor high tomorrow. However today and tomorrow form a double top in I1 with only .16 difference between their values.

In the past I hedged long stocks with short Euro, but now that position is on in the form of EUO naked.  I posted the 5-down count of the C wave in the dollar this afternoon.  Wave (v) will be equal to wave (iii) at 77.025, both have a length of 1.4 points.  I changed the count posted slightly to show wave (iii) at 77.94 instead of 78.01.  The daily chart shows the abc plainly once the C wave is complete (which it is).

I bought DX early at 77.17 because I didn't know if it would form a spike bottom or base for a while. The basing lasted for 3.5 hours and allowed the 1-minute M/As to catch up.  I compute a variety of M/As but only a few I deem reliable enough to risk capital.  Since I now have what I consider to be a complete wave count down I'm willing to use the 260-minute M/A +7cents or the EC 157-minute -20cents.  The Euro will trigger first.  I'll be waiting for a bounce back after the trigger level in the EC to either short EC or buy the DX.
I bought ZSL to short silver too early this afternoon at 11.07.  Silver probably will run to 23.95 before it runs out of gas.