3/7 Daily Commentary

I was on the road today, but was able to buy 2% SSO at 51.90 on the decline to the lower triangle boundary.  With I1 rising the triangle interpretation is the most likely wave count to fit with a continued rise in the stock market.  Thus, the earliest date for a peak is 3/25.  The triangle interpretation will be proven invalid on a decline below DJI 11,985.

SP futures must exceed their 30-minute M/A(blue line) by .5% on a 30-minute close to confirm the uptrend is underway.

The dollar passed it's first hurdle by rallying 16.5 cents beyond the 10-minute M/A (blue):

Unfortunately this rally has been a 3-wave and brings the dollar up against a more powerful hourly M/A (green)  that must be scaled by 30 cents to allow broken-field running. 

I bought TLT this morning for 90.03.  I'm content to hold as long as 89.80 is not breached.

Thursday's low was the end of a 3 down correcting a prior 5 up.